By Gamal Hennessy
Even with welcomed change in White House, the US recession is predicted to last well into 2009. In the past, recessions have led to a dramatic rise in violent crime. Nightlife specifically gained a reputation for being dangerous. Will history repeat itself? If so, what can natives and operators do to mitigate the problem?
Historical parallels
There is a historical link between economic stagnation and violent crime. “Every recession since the 50’s has led to higher crime” usually with a year lag between the economic trouble and the onset of the crime wave. While nightlife in New York experienced an injection of creativity during the last downturn, crime was also an issue. Nightlife was associated (and not always fairly) with muggings, rape, robbery and drug related crimes. Last week’s Trends report predicted an upswing in the nightlife industry. Do those same factors point to more crime?
Unclear Causes
Predictions are mixed because there are distinct differences between past financial crises and this one. Some experts say falling wages and fewer jobs will lead to higher crime as people become more desperate. Others claim that there are fewer potential victims today because electronic banking and video surveillance are so widespread. Mayor Bloomberg has used the specter of increased crime as one of the justifications for his rewriting of the term limits laws, but California has been embroiled in a prolonged financial crisis without seeing a rise in crime. Part of the reason that predicting crime is difficult may stem from the fact that some of the factors that link economics and crime are indirect.
It is easy to assume that if people lose their jobs, they can turn to crime as an alternative to work, but the more likely culprit in a crime spike will be stress not greed. When people suffer from large amounts of anxiety they are less likely to cope with situations in a rational manner. They are more likely to lash out as a way to release their pent up emotions. This lashing out can translate into more crimes including assault, domestic violence and rape. The crime isn’t committed to make money. It is committed without thinking. When the alcohol use increases to deal with the stress and the hormones inherent in nightlife are added to the mix, the threat of increased nightlife crime rises.
Complications
The threat of increased crime also brings new complications to natives and operators in the nightlife space. For the past year, venues affiliated with the New York Nightlife Association and the NYPD have been working together to create a safer nightlife environment. But recent friction between the police and the clubs is building. Within the past month, there have been reports of a major lawsuit from certain clubs against the police. If relations between clubs and the police deteriorate just as a crime wave is building, the results could be a decrease in overall safety for everyone and more animosity between the two groups. There are anti nightlife officials gaining power. They could be willing to use any perceived link between crime and nightlife as a weapon to attack our lifestyle.
Be aware, take care
Nightlife natives need to be aware of their own internal situations when they go out. Stress relief doesn’t need to descend into amateur displays of violence. Over indulgence will only make your situation worse.
At the same time, nightlife operators need to be aware of potential spike in both financial and stress crime and plan accordingly. The image your venue has might be more important as reality, since it will only take a few incidents to draw increased scrutiny.
Even with welcomed change in White House, the US recession is predicted to last well into 2009. In the past, recessions have led to a dramatic rise in violent crime. Nightlife specifically gained a reputation for being dangerous. Will history repeat itself? If so, what can natives and operators do to mitigate the problem?
Historical parallels
There is a historical link between economic stagnation and violent crime. “Every recession since the 50’s has led to higher crime” usually with a year lag between the economic trouble and the onset of the crime wave. While nightlife in New York experienced an injection of creativity during the last downturn, crime was also an issue. Nightlife was associated (and not always fairly) with muggings, rape, robbery and drug related crimes. Last week’s Trends report predicted an upswing in the nightlife industry. Do those same factors point to more crime?
Unclear Causes
Predictions are mixed because there are distinct differences between past financial crises and this one. Some experts say falling wages and fewer jobs will lead to higher crime as people become more desperate. Others claim that there are fewer potential victims today because electronic banking and video surveillance are so widespread. Mayor Bloomberg has used the specter of increased crime as one of the justifications for his rewriting of the term limits laws, but California has been embroiled in a prolonged financial crisis without seeing a rise in crime. Part of the reason that predicting crime is difficult may stem from the fact that some of the factors that link economics and crime are indirect.
It is easy to assume that if people lose their jobs, they can turn to crime as an alternative to work, but the more likely culprit in a crime spike will be stress not greed. When people suffer from large amounts of anxiety they are less likely to cope with situations in a rational manner. They are more likely to lash out as a way to release their pent up emotions. This lashing out can translate into more crimes including assault, domestic violence and rape. The crime isn’t committed to make money. It is committed without thinking. When the alcohol use increases to deal with the stress and the hormones inherent in nightlife are added to the mix, the threat of increased nightlife crime rises.
Complications
The threat of increased crime also brings new complications to natives and operators in the nightlife space. For the past year, venues affiliated with the New York Nightlife Association and the NYPD have been working together to create a safer nightlife environment. But recent friction between the police and the clubs is building. Within the past month, there have been reports of a major lawsuit from certain clubs against the police. If relations between clubs and the police deteriorate just as a crime wave is building, the results could be a decrease in overall safety for everyone and more animosity between the two groups. There are anti nightlife officials gaining power. They could be willing to use any perceived link between crime and nightlife as a weapon to attack our lifestyle.
Be aware, take care
Nightlife natives need to be aware of their own internal situations when they go out. Stress relief doesn’t need to descend into amateur displays of violence. Over indulgence will only make your situation worse.
At the same time, nightlife operators need to be aware of potential spike in both financial and stress crime and plan accordingly. The image your venue has might be more important as reality, since it will only take a few incidents to draw increased scrutiny.
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